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Expect housing starts to pick up through 2014: CMHC

July 4, 2013, Ottawa — Expect housing starts to re-gain momentum in the later part of the year and into 2014 as employment, economic growth and net migration improve, projected the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

Overall, total annual housing starts are expected to be lower in 2013 compared to 2012, mostly due to moderation observed in the first half of 2013, according to CMHC’s second quarter 2013 Housing Market Outlook, Canada Edition.

“So far in 2013, the average monthly growth rates of MLS sales, new listings and prices have all been increasing. This follows a period of average monthly declines that held sway over the second half of 2012,” said Mathieu Laberge, deputy chief economist for CMHC. “This change in the trend of the resale market is expected to eventually lead to a similar change in the trend of the new home market, as housing starts dynamics typically lag the resale market by one to three quarters.”

On an annual basis, housing starts are expected to range between 173,300 and 192,500 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 182,900 units, following a level of 214,827 units in 2012. In 2014, housing starts are expected to range from 166,500 to 211,300 units, with a point forecast of 188,900 units.

Existing home sales are expected to range between 412,000 and 474,800 units in 2013, with a point forecast of 443,400 units, following a level of 453,372 in 2012.