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Guest column: Canadian greenhouses can transform food production

Global population growth is expected to rise to 9.7 billion in 2050, with food demand rising around 56 per cent by 2050 from 2010 levels. Meeting future food production demand will remain a daunting task amid rising food insecurity. In Canada, more than 20 per cent of households experience food insecurity, while food prices in stores have increased 21.6 per cent from February 2021 to February 2024 due to several factors, including poor growing conditions, supply chain issues, and high input costs. These factors present a challenge for the country’s agriculture sector to innovate and advance climate resilient, efficient systems that bring more food to plates at an affordable price in Canada and across the world.

A recent report from RBC’s Climate Action Institute, makes the case that Canada’s greenhouses are well positioned to help meet the challenge because of their high land use and input efficiency, potential to shorten supply chains for Canadians, and a strong history of growth and innovation. The following are some highlights from the report.

Canada’s greenhouse sector is a hotbed for growth

Greenhouses specializing in fruits and vegetables have increased in farm gate value for the 11th consecutive year, up 9.2 per cent to $2.5 billion in 2023–doubling in size from a decade ago.

Infrastructure limitations could stunt future growth

Greenhouse production in Ontario is expected to more than double in acreage over the next 10 years, but the industry faces key barriers in accessing energy, water, waste management, and labour. Peak demand in the Windsor-Essex and Chatham area is projected to rise from 500 megawatt (MW) in 2023 to approximately 2,100 MW by 2035, driven primarily by growth in advanced and electric vehicle battery manufacturing and greenhouses.

Canada’s global greenhouse strengths lie in productivity and land-use efficiency

The country’s greenhouse production boasts the highest yields per area of land among top greenhouse nations. Canada produces 4.6 times more per area of land than Spain, is slightly more productive than the Netherlands, and 2.6 times more than Mexico. The challenge over the next decade for Canada will be to continue to lead on land-use efficiency, while scaling production to meet domestic and trade demands.

A key market for export growth is the western United States

Greenhouse vegetables account for 39 per cent of Canada’s fresh produce exports, 99.5 per cent of which are U.S.-bound. Canadian greenhouse fruit and vegetable products are consumed in the east from New York to Florida. Canada could also tap into the U.S. Midwest’s 68-million-strong market, if it can build relationships, branding, and cold chain logistics.

Greenhouses must solve their energy trilemma—of demand, emissions, and bills—to expand

Energy costs for greenhouses have surged 55 per cent between 2013 and 2023, while natural gas-sourced power is driving the industry’s carbon footprint. Reducing natural gas demand and the green premium for alternatives including renewable natural gas, hydrogen, and clean electricity would enable greenhouses to thrive in a low-carbon economy.

Canada’s greenhouse sector is a success story in growth and productivity, but it’s now time to consider steps that can sustain and expand the sector. A pan-Canadian greenhouse growth strategy that maps out production, trade, value, and greenhouse gas targets could enable the sector to still experience year-over-year growth by 2035 and beyond. In conjunction with mapping the possible, considering infrastructure, skills, policy, investment, and research needs are essential to address the sector’s challenges.

Greenhouses can emerge as a pillar of Canada’s agri-food growth and sustainability ambitions over the next decade and towards 2050. The sector is set to double in acreage over the next 10 years, deliver more diversity of products, and improve yields. The real challenge for Canadian greenhouses in meeting demands in growing markets and overcoming rising resource constraints will be developing infrastructure that spurs growth and decarbonization, and enables rural communities to thrive.

Read the full report here: https://www.rbc.com/climate-action-institute/index.html

Lisa Ashton, PhD., is the Agriculture Policy Lead for the RBC Climate Action Institute.